Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice

I want to try to outline what I believe are the underlying drivers of the Mideast conflict, because I believe that properly understood, they lead to surprisingly inevitable outcomes and policy recommendations. I also want to explain briefly how the stupidity and deep corruption of our leaders is clouding this picture, and may cause enormous unnecessary pain, but will not end up derailing the fundamental “direction of history”.

My first axiom of political analysis is that in the modern world, there is too much power in too small a space. Too much, that is, to permit the kind of freedoms that we would like to have; that we should have. This actually takes two distinct forms.

First, it has now become relatively easy for governments to develop and deploy large scale, enormously destructive weapons (nuclear, chemical, nano-tech, biological, etc.). As a result, many governments now have these weapons at their disposal, and it is essentially impossible to stop many more governments and even large scale non-state entities (such as well-financed terror organizations) from having them, in the fairly near future. This is actually the fundamental problem of our time, and the greatest threat to the human race. By itself, this dynamic would probably lead to either our destruction, or to imposition of suffocating controls by a universal, all-powerful social order -- because the alternative is so dangerous that any possible threat must be “nipped in the bud”.

Second, there are enormous numbers of cheap, highly lethal “personal” weapons – shoulder-fired or highly portable missiles, IEDs, compact assault rifles, computer viruses, bio weapons, etc. – that motivated individuals and groups can use to mount extremely effective “resistance”. And no way to stop their continuing proliferation. Again, this problem by itself is sufficient to require imposition of universal order – whether we like it or not. There is simply no other viable solution.

The other key axiom of modern politics is actually a very old principle – that in a messy world, complex coalitions will form in pursuit of power. What this means is that a few shifting, shadowy alliances will inevitably emerge that compete over something – could be anything – and that governments will partner with a series of convenient proxies in a complex web of relationships to achieve their political ends. Of course, this is a really very fundamental principle, the general case of which has nothing to do with governments or even people. Our universe supports complexity, and all complex systems behave this way – ecosystems, economies, organizations, etc. – from Darwin to Dilbert.

In addition to these very general frameworks of understanding, there are three more specific foundational drivers of the Mideast mess.

One – religion. There are a lot of ancient, intense, and essentially meaningless, non-logical, and unresolvable religious divisions within the Muslim world, and between Muslims and “the West”, which provide the fuel that can be fired by any old random cause. Insanity requires no good reason to go nuts on you. It powers itself. And while all religions are a bit insane, Islam -- for whatever reason -- is much more violently insane. Not every individual Muslim, of course, not even most -- but a significant percentage. Consider, for example, the violent response across much of the Islamic world to the cartoons depicting Mohammed.

Two – money (oil money, in particular). The leaders of the Arab Mideast countries are, without exception, ruthlessly dictatorial rulers who exploit their control of the accidentally valuable stuff that has magically appeared underground to power their incredible personal wealth and power, with essentially no productive capacity or IP of their own. They sell off the rights to process and distribute this blessing to others, scooping in gigantic tubs of money for nothing.

But it requires a lot of deep corruption and brutal force to keep this big game going. The modern Arab Mideast is a hornet’s nest of chickens that are coming home to roost… (to mix metaphors with abandon). Old deals, with the biggest old powers-that-were – the CIA, Big Oil, Big Defense, Big Banks, Big Auto, the G7 leaders, etc. – that are slowly unraveling.

The spigot’s been flowing for 60 years, and trillions of dollars have poured into the pockets of Mideast leaders whose personal depravity cannot even be comprehended by ordinary bourgeois Americans. It’s been kept flowing by brutality, and by a kind of shell-game played by the leaders – keeping the people occupied with the Israeli conflict and their intra-religious squabbles, so they won’t get busy demanding their share (or even more outrageous, doing something productive). But these games eventually take on a life of their own – the deluded Arab masses believe all the bullshit they’ve been fed, and act on it – and it begins to spin out of control. Suddenly you have movements and alliances and guerilla wars that were not part of the original plan, and that are harder and harder to manipulate. Craziness is unleashed, erupting with the fury of generations of delusion, powered by money and power to burn.

Three – occupation. The “Palestinian problem” has been purposely left to fester by Arab Mideast powers (and by their masters in the West, who managed the unholy alliances we established with the Arab bosses, to keep the oil flowing), as a useful tool for managing the masses. At any time, they could have made and enforced peace, and a two-state solution, and normal diplomatic nonsense would have ensued, if they wished. But that would have encouraged disruptive democracy, education, interchange, and enlightenment, which would not have been good for business – their personal business, that is. As a result, the Palestinians have been left in no-mans land – with nothing but their homelessness, misery and powerlessness.

Resentfully, angrily, like the downtrodden, hopeless denizens of any Skid Row or any poor, gang-infested neighborhood, they struck out with violence against “the cops” – against the Israeli occupiers who patrolled their streets with special brutality precisely because of their violence. Over generations, this vicious circle has evolved to the point where it has become the foundation of entrenched hatred by “the Arab street” against this proxy oppressor, on behalf of the oppressed Palestinians. It has become the foundation-stone of modern Arab consciousness, an unquestioned, deeply felt part of the mental make-up of the vast majority. Once an effective tool of social manipulation, it has spilled forth to power the madness of the entire geography, a kind of incurable insanity whose resolution could only happen after many generations of peace, or after a massive “shock to the system”.

Those are the only two possible outcomes now. Nuclear war, or a police state that removes the ability of the people to fight.

Why such limited options? Because the madness that was instigated by the need of the monied powers to keep the people crazy, and that has been fueled by occupation and religion, is a social phenomenon that cannot be undone. People and cultures are not machines – they cannot be changed quickly. They will remain crazy for awhile – violently crazy. And market forces will only make it worse in the near future. The lust for easy money will add fuel to their fire for awhile, with huge and growing markets dumping cash into their systems by the wheelbarrow-full, only to be shut off all-too-suddenly as the West digs out from their oil dependence with new technologies. Their lack of productive capacity will threaten them with drastic, sudden poverty, the fear of which will drive even more insane violence than was powered by their previous excess.

And this madness has at its disposal weapons that cannot be contained in today’s world – big “weapons of mass destruction” and little Katyushas and shoulder-fired missiles and anthrax. Either the weapons will be used – endless guerilla war, capped by a nuclear disaster – or they will be effectively contained – by a forceful imposition of consistent, oppressive order all over the world. If I had to bet, I would bet that the nuclear disaster will happen first, and in response to that final cataclysm, order will be imposed. But other scenarios are possible – civilization-ending holocaust, or the Brave New One World.

I think it is likely that for a brief period (until the arc of development of artificial intelligence overtakes the sequence being played out here) we will have a peaceful world government, along lines something like our current US Constitution. A representative government of benevolent philosopher-kings – or merchant-princes anyway – overseeing a managed society, messier than Brave New World, but commercial and classist and hedonistic as Huxley anticipated. Even if we have a minor nuclear “trigger” to the imposition of order – the loss of New York and London and Riyadh and Baghdad, for example – I doubt we will actually let loose the full nuclear madness before slamming on the brakes.

Of course, this is all “above” the level of the immediate situation. The outcome of the current crisis will not be so dramatic – it will be another messy, inadequate compromise. I suppose there may be some minor change – perhaps cutting off Syria from easy incursion into Lebanon, perhaps a somewhat more effective border policing, a multi-lateral force that gives Lebanon back some sovereignty, and dampens the Sunni-Shia conflict within Lebanon’s borders for a short time. But this is a small eddy in the larger flow – in the end, it will make no difference in the outcome of the larger forces.

The fly in the ointment – the real danger – the margin of unpredictability – flows from the fact that the conspiracy theorists are wrong: there are no masters running the show. Of course there are shadowy powers, corrupt alliances, and deep secrets, but it’s a messy world, full of shifting, unpredictable coalitions. In this real world, there is no way to manage our evolution cleanly or logically, or for those in power to tell the truth – because they are in bitter, life-and-death competition just to hold the reins, and do not have the power to steer. Thus, the madness continues to develop and to endanger the entire world. This is the true source of danger to all of us – and the source of our frustration. Of course it’s obvious to anyone that the bizarrely crazy “Arab street” bastards are insanely endangering everyone, and of course the corrupt oil-finance-defense oligarchy is insanely driving us all straight into the abyss, but there is no one that has the power to change the system.