How could it get this bad?

One of the real pleasures of getting older is sloughing off much of one’s concern over what people think of you, and gaining the ability to speak honestly, without political correctness, although still with some recognition of fallibility. One also starts to take more seriously the responsibility to take stands, perhaps even to lead where appropriate.

With that said, I would like to share my perspective on the Mideast conflict, and some even broader concerns. I realize that my views may cause waves where they could be avoided, but I think it’s better this way.

Many people, I believe, fall into a trap when considering Mideast rights and wrongs. They observe that both Israel and her opponents have a long history of killing those on the other side, and making life miserable for them. And one could easily argue that the suffering has been far greater on the side of the opponents, especially Palestinians, including genuinely innocent people who have had the misfortune to be in the wrong place and time.

Rather like watching a married couple with a long history of fighting, one can easily conclude “a pox on both your houses”… It takes two to tango and all that. Both sides must share the blame for creating the mess. Especially when one sees both sides engaged in nasty recriminations all the time, instead of “working towards peace” and moving on. We would never act that way, we say to ourselves… we would never have put ourselves in such a position.

But of course, this is nonsense. When one comes across a fight that has been going on for awhile, one cannot tell without the benefit of mind-reading whether one side or the other or both are really at fault. But it is certainly possible that one side is more “right”, as much as right can ever be determined. When the American Revolutionaries fought the British, it was possible to take a side, and to see one’s beliefs and interests on the side of the Americans. When a killer attacks a family and the family fights back, it is not the case that both sides are equal, even if they look and act the same when they fight. In the case of the Mideast today, the Palestinian side is crazed and impossible to deal with, and the Israelis are simply dealing with that in the only way possible.

How can we know this? It’s simple. The following thought experiment reveals clearly the critical difference between the sides.

Imagine if all of Israel’s opponents stopped fighting, and laid down their arms, completely. Not their political aspirations, just the tools of violence. What would happen? Assuming that one could verify that violence had been permanently renounced, it is obvious that a negotiated, two-state peace would be reached, and in fact that Israel would give back most or all territory taken in war and kept for defensive purposes. And a close partnership would grow, between parties that are after all estranged brothers, and have much to gain from the prosperity, resources, and talents of the other.

This is not to claim that every single person in Israel would go along with this – some religious nuts and some racists would certainly resist this path; perhaps a few would indulge imperial ambitions. But the clear and overwhelming majority would take the viable two-state approach; would kiss and make up. Because that’s all they’ve ever been after. Because, at bottom, it’s clear that the whole “occupation” and taking of territory and doctrine of overwhelming response on the part of Israel is all in the service of it’s existential defense. So peace would reign supreme. Does anyone seriously believe otherwise?

Now what would happen if, conversely, Israel laid down her arms – all of her offensive and defensive capability? It is obvious that although many Palestinians would tiredly prefer peace and mutual coexistence, a very substantial number would immediately invade and destroy Israel, despite her defenselessness – indeed, because of it. There is no reasonable doubt about this in the real world. One can only imagine the bloodbath; the incredible orgy of revenge and death; the draconian measures to eradicate Jews from the land and return it to what is imagined as rightful Palestinian control. It doesn’t take much imagination – examples of the brutality and insanity of a large portion of this population are legion.

So we have a clear asymmetry. Good and bad sides, to be blunt.

Anyone who knows me knows that I do not mean by this that Israelis are inherently superior to Palestinians or Arabs. Indeed, in comparison to other populations, they are much more alike than different – both are “a stiff-necked people” – and even their minor differences are not in favor of one side or the other. But it is also true that for the last 60+ years, the culture of the Arab Mideast has been incredibly warped into a terrible cauldron of madness and delusion; whipped into an intense furor by religious and ideological lunacy of the highest order. This situation has been fomented by incredibly evil and corrupt dictators (created by the US and her allies), who have purposefully perpetuated soul-destroying suffering and misery over decades; exacerbated by the scars of never-ending, generation-after-generation war, and the insulting experience of day-after-day occupation and slum life, and the demonizing that occurs on all sides as a result. So it’s NO WONDER that the people of Palestine and elsewhere in that region are crazy, and that their actions are evil. But that excuse does not change the situation.

Now let us try another revealing thought experiment. Imagine that the same conflict had been going on for generations, but with this difference – that the only weapons that could ever be used by the Palestinian side were sticks and stones. A sort of Twilight Zone situation, where even if nuclear weapons were lobbed in from Iran, they magically converted to a harmless spray of pebbles. What would change?

In this scenario, the conflict would end, and everyone would stop worrying and go home. The sides would negotiate, and all would end well. Because the underlying problem is not the hatred and craziness on the Palestinian side, or ANYTHING on the Israeli side. It is the combination of craziness with massive destructive power and potential – with the ability that crazy people have to cause massive havoc and death.

And this principle can be applied much more broadly. This is, in fact, the most significant problem in the world today, and an insoluble one.

Technology has brought us incredibly powerful weapons, and our world is too small to contain them. We have failed to develop a viable capacity to migrate into space, off-world, so we are stuck here in an increasingly crowded, interconnected world. And in this tiny neighborhood, we now have massive stockpiles of hugely destructive weapons – nuclear, chemical, bio, and even more dangerous nano-weapons and incredibly smart weapons on the horizon. We also have millions of weapons that enable asymmetric warfare – shoulder-fired rockets and the like, that allows individuals to cheaply and easily bring down planes, ships, buildings, and similar large targets.

This genie is already out of the bottle – there is no way to put it back. And in this world, the only possible outcome is for a benign government to gain control over the citizenry of the entire world – in effect, a one world government with highly effective police powers. And of course, this is what is happening – in incompetently managed fits and starts, as is the wont of the idiotic human race, but nonetheless the obvious big picture trend is quite clear. Many of us would naturally oppose this trend, not wanting to cede our freedoms or our cultures, or to remake the world as a corporatist marketplace. I would certainly prefer the current state to this outcome. But the big problem I’ve outlined leaves no alternatives – there is simply no other solution to the initial conditions and the forces at play in which we find ourselves – like it or not. The system WILL protect itself, and the Brave New World will be come into existence.

And in the meantime, faced by a culture of death and insanity, Israel unfortunately has no choice but to strike as hard as possible when attacked. I would even recommend a far harder strike than is likely to happen soon – I would recommend that we seriously (and openly) consider ending the war once and for all, with no-holds-barred strikes (including nuclear) against our most troublesome enemies: Iran, Syria, perhaps Palestine, perhaps North Korea – which I believe may be the most merciful strategy. Otherwise, the conflict is allowed to fester, and crazy bitterness and hatred are built up ever further on both sides. And in our world of massive weapons and small space, this will eventually lead to much worse. I have predicted for years now that before the end, we’ll see the nuclear bombing of New York, Washington, and LA, and every day I am reinforced in this prediction.